Does the creation of CELAC herald a golden dawn for Latin America?

In my first blog I talked about the need for Latin American countries to work closer together in order to make their mark on the world. With the first meeting of CELAC (Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños), this week it would appear that this is exactly what is happening. At this meeting the leaders of the American nations pledged to work together in many aspects and create more regional ties in an attempt to withstand the current global problems. Indeed, whilst the United States and European nations have suffered recently, Latin American nations have continued to post strong growth and Colombia’s President stated that countries like his would have to increase their trade with other countries in the region because "a hurricane was hitting the developed economies" and that they could not rely on them anymore. One of the most promising signs about these pledges to work together to continue their strong economic performance were acknowledgements by leaders such as President Sebastian Pinera of  Chile that the region’s countries would put their differences aside.

As significant as these promises to work together was the alienation of the United States and Canada. CELAC was designed to overtake the out-dated Organisation of American States which was dominated by the United States and so CELAC will be a much more equal union of nations. CELAC has truly shown its intent to ignore the US and escape from the shadows of the old Washington Consensus by backing a bill calling for the United States to end its trade embargo on Cuba; a move which would have been unimaginable a decade ago.  The fact that Latin America’s countries have unanimously opposed the United States shows its waning power in the region and this could allow Brazil to become the most important country in the region. Its ten years since the economist Jim O’Neill coined the term BRIC for the developing countries he thought could dominate the world in the future (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and Brazil has certainly seen its economic and political muscle on the world stage expand massively over the last ten years. If Brazil continues to grow as it is and takes the rest of Latin America with it then CELAC, if it proves to be successful, has the potential to be as powerful and important (if not more) than organisations such as the EU and NAFTA.

Despite the fact that the world’s media has not given the CELAC conference much coverage it could be as important in writing a new chapter of global history as the Western economic crisis and the economic failure of states such as Greece and Italy is proving to be.

This Blog is about Latin America, of course there would be drugs!

Considering that this is a blog about Latin America it will no doubt come as a surprise to you that this is the first time I am writing solely about drugs. When asked about Latin America, the first thing that comes to many people’s minds is drugs; whilst I aim to dispel the myth of Latin America being a continent which gives the rest of the world nothing but drugs, there is no doubt that drugs are still a huge problem and thus need to be discussed in this blog.

One of the countries which has been tarnished most by its image as a drug exporter is Colombia. Much of this is due to the bloody conflict that has been raging on between the left wing militia group FARC and the US-backed government. Whilst the conflict began as a battle between two opposing factions with different ideas for Colombia’s future, over the years it has degenerated into nothing more than power wars, both sides have been accused of attacking civilians and there is evidence of FARC exporting drugs and exploiting peasants in order to achieve their goals. However, over recent years the fighting has decreased as Colombia has gotten more stable and democratic. The recent death of FARC’s leader, Alfonso Cano, should also mean that the fighting decreases and will be a real blow to the Colombian drugs industry. Colombia has long strove to disassociate itself from the image of drugs capital of the world. Indeed, anyone who boards an airplane in Colombia must check in with the anti-narcotics police and all planes are tracked by radar; if drugs are found the government are entitled to shoot at the plane.  The people are broadly behind these measures too; a recent BBC survey found that only 3% of Colombians have any sympathy for FARC. It would seem that Shakira, and not cocaine, is now Colombia’s greatest export! This is not to say that Colombia’s battles with drugs are over. Just a few weeks ago former model Angie Saclamente was detained on drug smuggling charges. It transpires that she recruited poor young women throughout Colombia and Latin America to smuggle drugs to Europe via Mexico. This shows that there is significant money to be made from drugs and that the government faces a huge task to stamp them out.

Bolivia has taken a very different route to Colombia. In 2009, the world’s first Cocaine bar was opened on Bolivia’s route 36 and in 2008 coca purification went up 28%, whether legally or illegally is unknown. These are worrying signs that Bolivia may be overtaking Colombia (whose coca purification was down 10 in 2008) as cocaine capital! Bolivia’s president is well-known for resenting the United States and thus refuses allow the US drug agency DEA in the country. Indeed, Morales has long championed the rights of indigenous people to chew the coca leaf (in its non-purified state) for social purposes, however, it would appear that this has made its purification easier. Indeed, the US and Bolivian views on Coca and Cocaine differ so greatly that three years ago Bolivia expelled the US ambassador and drug enforcement agencies from the country. However, positive steps are being taken now as full diplomatic ties have now been restored. President Morales insists, however, that the DEA and other US drug agencies will not be welcome in Bolivia as the days of ‘subjugation’ are over. Despite the worrying trend of Bolivia’s increasing cocaine output this move should be welcomed as it is an example of a Latin American leader standing up against US bullying and this will prevent US enforcers from destroying Bolivian crops.

Whilst indigenous Bolivians have been accused of helping the trade in cocaine by refusing to give up coca, the story in Brazil is a very different one. Here drug smugglers have been encroaching on, and threatening, the land of indigenous peoples. The Panoan Indians who have had no contact with the outside world and were only discovered in 2008 when they were filmed from the air have had their lands attacked by smugglers wishing to traffic drugs from Peru to Brazil. The Brazilian government has set up guard posts to protect these people; however, heavy fighting between the smugglers and government forces could seriously impact upon them. A smuggler’s rucksack containing a tribesman’s broken arrow was found by the government forces. This is a very worrying sign as it shows that the smugglers are already attempting to intimidate and threaten the tribe and could even be attempted to eradicate them.

Elsewhere in Brazil, the police’s attempt to gain control of the cities favelas (slums) before the 2014 Fifa World Cup and 2016 Olympics has intensified. Many of Brazil’s, and Latin America’s, slums are controlled by drugs gangs with little or no federal intervention. However, this has started to change in Brazil as the police have been sent in to many of the favelas to clear out the drug dealers. Last night it was reported that civil authority has been returned to Rochina, one of Rio’s largest slums. Indeed, Nem, one of Brazil’s most notorious drug barons was caught and arrested trying to escape the area as well. This must be seen as a step forwards as it allows civil authorities to move in and provide services such as health care and electricity; residents in slums which have already been cleared of drug gangs have also reported a fall in crime rates and have generally seen their lives improve. Questions must be asked of the Brazilian government however. If they have the ability to eradicate these gangs from the country’s slums why are they only doing it now when the world is watching them rather than in the past for their own people?  

These snippets of news show that drugs still present a huge problem to Latin American societies, especially as the drug lords can exert huge power over and threaten entire populations. The US led eradication programmes have largely failed, Colombia’s decrease in drug production is largely due to internal governance rather than American interference. Indeed, the USA has led policies of destroying coca which has also led to the destruction of crops which rather than push peasants away from cultivating coca for drugs barons has pushed them towards that option. It is clear that these policies will not work. The legalisation and regulation of drugs by governments is an idea which is frowned upon, largely due to Western propaganda, however it might present the best option for Latin America and the world. This would ensure that drug barons could not wield influence over government or society, peasants could be better protected by the government, drug users could be monitored by the government and the government could plough the proceeds of this enterprise into anti-drugs propaganda.

Evita reborn?

Last Sunday Argentinians granted their President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner another term in office with an impressive 54% of the vote. Her nearest challenger, Hermes Binner, gained polled only 17%. The landslide victory is testament to, among other things, the strong economic growth which Argentina has achieved under Fernandez’s stewardship (as well as that of her late husband, Nestor Kirchner , before her).

Indeed, Argentina’s economic revival since 2003 is nothing short of miraculous. Back then the Argentine economy was in free-fall and the inflation rate was rocketing however, in his four years in office, Nestor Kirchner managed to tame inflation rates and get the economy working again. It was largely due to his popularity after saving the economy that his wife, Cristina Fernandez, was elected President in 2007. Fernandez started her first term as president very badly though; within months of being elected she had alienated many Argentines after rowing with farmers and media groups over the introduction of export quotas. Her approval ratings plummeted to around 20%. The strong economic growth which Argentina was experiencing was widely put down to her husband, who was now chancellor, and his work behind the scenes  and it was widely expected that he would return to the Presidency in 2011. However, he died of a heart attack last October. Fernandez has been in public mourning ever since and the way in which she has conducted herself has gained her much support throughout the country.

Sympathy alone did not win her the election though! The economy continued to perform strongly after her husband died and more and more people began to see her as a capable and fair president. Much of Argentina’s growth has been through the export of commodities such as soya beans and industrial goods like cars which have a high demand from China. Internally subsidies to increase consumption have worked wonders; unemployment is also down substantially. Fernandez has capitalized on this economic success and introduced many social policies which have improved the lives of many Argentinians as well as increased her popularity. Thanks to Fernandez’s policies 3 million of Argentina’s poorest children are enrolled on a programme whereby their families receive a grant of US$50 a month to clothe and feed them.  This has proved extremely popular as has Fernandez’s scheme of giving free laptops to children from poor communities. As well as improving people’s lives in the short term these policies will improve the lives of Argentinians in the future as many of these policies are centred on improving the education system.  And it is not just with the poor that Fernandez is proving popular. As well having presided over strong economic growth and social improvements Fernandez has also flexed Argentina’s muscles on the world stage, most notably over Las Malvinas (The Falklands). Without causing much of a diplomatic fallout Fernandez has used fiery rhetoric stating that Las Malvinas should belong to Argentina and not to the United Kingdom; this has appealed to many nationalist-minded Argentinians who remember the Falklands War and the days of listening to the western-controlled IMF’s every demand.

Fernandez’s time in office has largely been successful, however, the strong economic growth and high spending on social policies has caused inflation to soar. The rate of inflation is now estimated at between 10% and 20% and untamed it could undo all the good work of Cristina Fernandez and her late husband. The economy also needs to be rebalanced; Fernandez’s consumption subsidies have done much to address this problem, however, two-thirds of the economy still relies on the export of commodities and external shocks could affect Argentina badly! However, if Fernandez’s second term sees her successfully tackle inflation and rebalance the economy whilst maintain strong economic growth, Argentina could be on a path back to the glory days of Eva Perón.

It's not Hugo Chavez's health we should be worried about but his country's!

In recent months there have been numerous stories about the state of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s health and each time he has dismissed these stories as having been completely blown out of proportion. The same is true about the health of the Venezuelan nation and its economy. Four months ago Chavez flew to Cuba for cancer treatment and he is heading back there next week for what the government describes as a routine ‘check-up’. Whether or not Chavez’s health is as strong as he claims is open to debate, however, there is no question that Venezuela’s economy has been terminally ill for years.

Chavez’s cancer treatment has taken place in top of the range Venezuelan hospitals as well as in Venezuela’s communist ally Cuba. Needless to say, the option to fly over to Cuba for medical treatment is not available to most Venezuelans but neither is the option to facilitate Venezuela’s top hospitals; showing itself to be a shining beacon of Socialism, Venezuela has a two tier health system. Venezuela’s private hospitals have been compared to those in the United States and are generally seen as amongst the best in the world. The majority of Venezuelan’s, however, have to make do with the public health system which is far below the standards of the private system; these hospitals are often dirty, have machinery which doesn’t work, are over-crowded and are under-staffed; 2,000 doctors left the country in the period from 2006 to 2008. Whilst there has been a general decline in what was once seen as one of Latin America’s greatest health care systems since the 1980s, Chavez’s Socialist government has had enough time to deliver a better service for the people they claim to serve. Chavez’s government seems to have strayed far from their Communist ideals in allowing people to pay for healthcare and in treating the rich differently to the rest although at least they’ve stuck to Communism’s most important doctrine by allowing the proletariat to all suffer together.

It is not only in the health sector that the Chavez and his cronies have brought to its knees. Staying true to Communist principles Chavez’s thugs have, in an attempt to show how much better collectives are than private enterprises, successfully confiscated land from thousands of successful capitalists and landowners and re-distributed them as cooperatives or amongst the poor. The sheer illegality of the confiscations and the lives which have been destroyed aside, this may seem like a good idea which could benefit the lives of many of Venezuela’s people; however, this is not true.  As land has been redistributed, it has been taken away from those with knowledge of how to produce the goods which Venezuela exports and of how to produce food to those who have none and thus there has been a mass decline in production and a country which should be able to feed itself twice over is having to import two-thirds of its food! Due to this the economy of a country which has some of the richest supplies of natural resources in the world is in free fall and inflation is at 30%! The great Simon Bolivar once called the Llaneros (beef herders of Venezuela and Colombia) his toughest fighters, and it is certainly true that they have helped to make beef a Venezuelan staple and are thus well placed to comment on the state of Venezuela’s food economy.  Despite being poorly paid by the land owners they work for these ranchers are fearful of Chavez’s land grabs and believe that if the land their cattle graze on is taken away and divided up amongst peasants then both the quality and quantity of Venezuelan beef will fall and thus food shortages will worsen. Despite this I’m sure Venezuelans will take solace from the fact that they have produced food in a Socialist manner rather than by working for experienced, capitalist landowners as the economy crumbles and they starve.

Venezuela under Chavez has been transformed by Socialism; before Chavez’s assent to power it was a poor and dangerous country, these days it may be more so! Despite all of Chavez’s redistributions of land and power, 25% of the country’s population remain below the poverty line with many of those people living in Barrios (slums) which are controlled by gangs and the police fear to set foot in. Central government statistics seem to claim that poverty and crime are falling, however, the police openly disagree with these statistics. Last year Caracas was the murder capital of the world with over 17,000 homicides. Despite these shocking statistics, Venezuelans can at least cling on to free speech; Venezuelans are free to say whatever they want to whomever with the clear understanding that if they say the wrong thing or anger the wrong official their business will be confiscated from them and handed to the state, they themselves will be reduced to poverty and made equal to the rest of the population creating a perfectly equal society where everybody is stuck in poverty!

Whether Chavez genuinely believes that his policies will lead to better Venezuela or whether he is simply a thug who wants to maintain power at the expense of his people his policies are clearly failures.  Chavez can play the strong man as much as he likes and pretend, just like his health, that all is well, however, the truth is that Venezuela is ailing and is in need of a great doctor!

Don't beat your backers or soon enough they'll beat you much harder, Mr Morales!

Last week I spoke of the bright future which could herald for South America but recent developments in Bolivia have run contrary to this promise.
In 2005, Evo Morales was elected as the first indigenous president of Bolivia and this was widely seen as a great advance in the rights of the indigenous people and for equality. Whilst some of his policies have been a tad too socialist at times there is no doubt that Morales is one of the first presidents who has managed to put Bolivians first, stood up to big multinationals and kept the economy going strongly. A former cocoa farmer who rode to power on the back of powerful social movements which called for a decent standard of living and the protection of the environment, there is no doubt that Morales was a man of the people. This, however, may no longer be the case.
Due to it's geographical position, the fact that many of the Amazon's tributaries start there and its many glaciers and high altitude Bolivia has been affected more than most countries by the relentless rise of global temperatures due to climate change and thus Morales has always championed 'Pacha Mama' (Mother Nature) on the global scene. However, Morales now stands accused of turning his back on the environment, the rights of indigenous people and the constitution in favour of economic development. All indigenous nations are supposed to be consulted before a development which could affect them takes place, this was put in the constitution by none other than Morales himself, however, Morales began plans to build a highway through the Amazon without consulting any of the indigenous nations! Morales has argued that the road will benefit all the people of Bolivia as it will make travel and transport easier, however, protesters argue that protected indigenous lands will be cut through, the eco-system will suffer and that Morales and his government are only listening to one section of the population and are only to Ayamara Indians (the nation which Morales belongs to) and not other indigenous groups.
The worst part is that the protesters do not seem to be allowed to protest. Morales has authorised police brutality and beatings to prevent the protest marches from becoming too vocal. This is rank hypocrisy, Morales himself led many protest marches (two of which helped remove former presidents from office) however know that they are challenging him and that his re-election is in doubt he is trying everything to prevent them and has even accused the protest leaders of being U.S. spies. The man who came to power calling for more democracy and promising to listen to the the demands of the people has suddenly become the enemy of the people and the enemy of democracy; if Morales wants to remain in power he must stick to the beliefs which helped him come to power rather than oppress the very people who got him there!

The allure of the 'Forgotten Continent'

Michael Reid, a contributor to The Economist,  once stated that Latin America is overlooked by the rest of the world as it is neither 'poor enough to evoke Africa’s moral crusade, nor as explosively booming as India and China.' Personally, I find the history and politics of Latin America to be fascinating and believe that the future of this vast continent, with it's colossal inequalities, it's huge oil reserves, it's vast drug production and it's shaky democratic foundations will greatly affect the existing world order. 

Both local and global political issues have always fascinated me and if there is a development which takes my interest from another part of the world I will give my views on it here. However, I will primarily focus on Latin American developments.

I first became seriously interested in Latin American history when I visited Peru and Bolivia with my family in 2007. Whilst on the shores of Lake Titicaca I met a very interesting man, I've long since forgotten his name but his words stuck with me and have made a deep impression. The man, let's call him Gerardo, told me of how he had left Bolivia (for Europe) in the 1980s in order to escape the economic turmoil which characterised the era and the persecution by military Juntas which he feared could return if things got too out of hand. The Juntas, which have scarred much of Bolivia's history, did not return and in the early 2000s he returned to a Bolivia which had been ruled democratically for almost two decades and which was now economically stronger. Bolivia had reformed and used it's vast wealth of natural resources such as Hydrocarbons in order to facilitate this growth after a long slump however it was clear that Gerardo believed that Bolivia's future could be even greater. He spoke of his hope for Bolivia's future with so much passion it was difficult not to agree with him that Bolivia's, and indeed Latin America's, future COULD be very bright given the right circumstances. The early 21st century has seen economic growth throughout most of Latin America and this has coincided with a period of greater co-operation between the countries of Latin America, many of which have been at odds with each other since their independence in the early 19th century. With this greater cooperation there have been talks of Bolivia being granted access to the sea, a privilege which it lost in the disastrous War of the Pacific with Chile back in 1883. The excitement which I felt in Gerardo's voice as he told me this was comparable to a child's on Christmas eve and so I realised that at that moment this man was the physical embodiment of the hope and expectation of an entire nation and an entire continent which  could have a glorious future.

Bolivia is yet to be granted that access to the sea and its economy lags behind the rest of Latin America's, it is also ruled by a nationalist, Socialist President who is distrusted by many of the liberal democracies of the West, as are Venezuela and Ecuador; Peruvians have also recently elected a President who has Socialist and Nationalist leanings. However, these countries have been relatively unaffected by the global recession. The more export orientated nations of Latin America such as Brazil and Chile have also fared very well in this current economic climate and are now flexing their economic muscles around the world. Only time will tell whether or not countries like Brazil and Chile will become as economically powerful as the West, whether the Socialist experiments of the other nations will work or whether Latin American co-operation will last, however, one thing is certain, the future looks fascinating.