Evita reborn?

Last Sunday Argentinians granted their President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner another term in office with an impressive 54% of the vote. Her nearest challenger, Hermes Binner, gained polled only 17%. The landslide victory is testament to, among other things, the strong economic growth which Argentina has achieved under Fernandez’s stewardship (as well as that of her late husband, Nestor Kirchner , before her).

Indeed, Argentina’s economic revival since 2003 is nothing short of miraculous. Back then the Argentine economy was in free-fall and the inflation rate was rocketing however, in his four years in office, Nestor Kirchner managed to tame inflation rates and get the economy working again. It was largely due to his popularity after saving the economy that his wife, Cristina Fernandez, was elected President in 2007. Fernandez started her first term as president very badly though; within months of being elected she had alienated many Argentines after rowing with farmers and media groups over the introduction of export quotas. Her approval ratings plummeted to around 20%. The strong economic growth which Argentina was experiencing was widely put down to her husband, who was now chancellor, and his work behind the scenes  and it was widely expected that he would return to the Presidency in 2011. However, he died of a heart attack last October. Fernandez has been in public mourning ever since and the way in which she has conducted herself has gained her much support throughout the country.

Sympathy alone did not win her the election though! The economy continued to perform strongly after her husband died and more and more people began to see her as a capable and fair president. Much of Argentina’s growth has been through the export of commodities such as soya beans and industrial goods like cars which have a high demand from China. Internally subsidies to increase consumption have worked wonders; unemployment is also down substantially. Fernandez has capitalized on this economic success and introduced many social policies which have improved the lives of many Argentinians as well as increased her popularity. Thanks to Fernandez’s policies 3 million of Argentina’s poorest children are enrolled on a programme whereby their families receive a grant of US$50 a month to clothe and feed them.  This has proved extremely popular as has Fernandez’s scheme of giving free laptops to children from poor communities. As well as improving people’s lives in the short term these policies will improve the lives of Argentinians in the future as many of these policies are centred on improving the education system.  And it is not just with the poor that Fernandez is proving popular. As well having presided over strong economic growth and social improvements Fernandez has also flexed Argentina’s muscles on the world stage, most notably over Las Malvinas (The Falklands). Without causing much of a diplomatic fallout Fernandez has used fiery rhetoric stating that Las Malvinas should belong to Argentina and not to the United Kingdom; this has appealed to many nationalist-minded Argentinians who remember the Falklands War and the days of listening to the western-controlled IMF’s every demand.

Fernandez’s time in office has largely been successful, however, the strong economic growth and high spending on social policies has caused inflation to soar. The rate of inflation is now estimated at between 10% and 20% and untamed it could undo all the good work of Cristina Fernandez and her late husband. The economy also needs to be rebalanced; Fernandez’s consumption subsidies have done much to address this problem, however, two-thirds of the economy still relies on the export of commodities and external shocks could affect Argentina badly! However, if Fernandez’s second term sees her successfully tackle inflation and rebalance the economy whilst maintain strong economic growth, Argentina could be on a path back to the glory days of Eva Perón.

It's not Hugo Chavez's health we should be worried about but his country's!

In recent months there have been numerous stories about the state of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s health and each time he has dismissed these stories as having been completely blown out of proportion. The same is true about the health of the Venezuelan nation and its economy. Four months ago Chavez flew to Cuba for cancer treatment and he is heading back there next week for what the government describes as a routine ‘check-up’. Whether or not Chavez’s health is as strong as he claims is open to debate, however, there is no question that Venezuela’s economy has been terminally ill for years.

Chavez’s cancer treatment has taken place in top of the range Venezuelan hospitals as well as in Venezuela’s communist ally Cuba. Needless to say, the option to fly over to Cuba for medical treatment is not available to most Venezuelans but neither is the option to facilitate Venezuela’s top hospitals; showing itself to be a shining beacon of Socialism, Venezuela has a two tier health system. Venezuela’s private hospitals have been compared to those in the United States and are generally seen as amongst the best in the world. The majority of Venezuelan’s, however, have to make do with the public health system which is far below the standards of the private system; these hospitals are often dirty, have machinery which doesn’t work, are over-crowded and are under-staffed; 2,000 doctors left the country in the period from 2006 to 2008. Whilst there has been a general decline in what was once seen as one of Latin America’s greatest health care systems since the 1980s, Chavez’s Socialist government has had enough time to deliver a better service for the people they claim to serve. Chavez’s government seems to have strayed far from their Communist ideals in allowing people to pay for healthcare and in treating the rich differently to the rest although at least they’ve stuck to Communism’s most important doctrine by allowing the proletariat to all suffer together.

It is not only in the health sector that the Chavez and his cronies have brought to its knees. Staying true to Communist principles Chavez’s thugs have, in an attempt to show how much better collectives are than private enterprises, successfully confiscated land from thousands of successful capitalists and landowners and re-distributed them as cooperatives or amongst the poor. The sheer illegality of the confiscations and the lives which have been destroyed aside, this may seem like a good idea which could benefit the lives of many of Venezuela’s people; however, this is not true.  As land has been redistributed, it has been taken away from those with knowledge of how to produce the goods which Venezuela exports and of how to produce food to those who have none and thus there has been a mass decline in production and a country which should be able to feed itself twice over is having to import two-thirds of its food! Due to this the economy of a country which has some of the richest supplies of natural resources in the world is in free fall and inflation is at 30%! The great Simon Bolivar once called the Llaneros (beef herders of Venezuela and Colombia) his toughest fighters, and it is certainly true that they have helped to make beef a Venezuelan staple and are thus well placed to comment on the state of Venezuela’s food economy.  Despite being poorly paid by the land owners they work for these ranchers are fearful of Chavez’s land grabs and believe that if the land their cattle graze on is taken away and divided up amongst peasants then both the quality and quantity of Venezuelan beef will fall and thus food shortages will worsen. Despite this I’m sure Venezuelans will take solace from the fact that they have produced food in a Socialist manner rather than by working for experienced, capitalist landowners as the economy crumbles and they starve.

Venezuela under Chavez has been transformed by Socialism; before Chavez’s assent to power it was a poor and dangerous country, these days it may be more so! Despite all of Chavez’s redistributions of land and power, 25% of the country’s population remain below the poverty line with many of those people living in Barrios (slums) which are controlled by gangs and the police fear to set foot in. Central government statistics seem to claim that poverty and crime are falling, however, the police openly disagree with these statistics. Last year Caracas was the murder capital of the world with over 17,000 homicides. Despite these shocking statistics, Venezuelans can at least cling on to free speech; Venezuelans are free to say whatever they want to whomever with the clear understanding that if they say the wrong thing or anger the wrong official their business will be confiscated from them and handed to the state, they themselves will be reduced to poverty and made equal to the rest of the population creating a perfectly equal society where everybody is stuck in poverty!

Whether Chavez genuinely believes that his policies will lead to better Venezuela or whether he is simply a thug who wants to maintain power at the expense of his people his policies are clearly failures.  Chavez can play the strong man as much as he likes and pretend, just like his health, that all is well, however, the truth is that Venezuela is ailing and is in need of a great doctor!

Don't beat your backers or soon enough they'll beat you much harder, Mr Morales!

Last week I spoke of the bright future which could herald for South America but recent developments in Bolivia have run contrary to this promise.
In 2005, Evo Morales was elected as the first indigenous president of Bolivia and this was widely seen as a great advance in the rights of the indigenous people and for equality. Whilst some of his policies have been a tad too socialist at times there is no doubt that Morales is one of the first presidents who has managed to put Bolivians first, stood up to big multinationals and kept the economy going strongly. A former cocoa farmer who rode to power on the back of powerful social movements which called for a decent standard of living and the protection of the environment, there is no doubt that Morales was a man of the people. This, however, may no longer be the case.
Due to it's geographical position, the fact that many of the Amazon's tributaries start there and its many glaciers and high altitude Bolivia has been affected more than most countries by the relentless rise of global temperatures due to climate change and thus Morales has always championed 'Pacha Mama' (Mother Nature) on the global scene. However, Morales now stands accused of turning his back on the environment, the rights of indigenous people and the constitution in favour of economic development. All indigenous nations are supposed to be consulted before a development which could affect them takes place, this was put in the constitution by none other than Morales himself, however, Morales began plans to build a highway through the Amazon without consulting any of the indigenous nations! Morales has argued that the road will benefit all the people of Bolivia as it will make travel and transport easier, however, protesters argue that protected indigenous lands will be cut through, the eco-system will suffer and that Morales and his government are only listening to one section of the population and are only to Ayamara Indians (the nation which Morales belongs to) and not other indigenous groups.
The worst part is that the protesters do not seem to be allowed to protest. Morales has authorised police brutality and beatings to prevent the protest marches from becoming too vocal. This is rank hypocrisy, Morales himself led many protest marches (two of which helped remove former presidents from office) however know that they are challenging him and that his re-election is in doubt he is trying everything to prevent them and has even accused the protest leaders of being U.S. spies. The man who came to power calling for more democracy and promising to listen to the the demands of the people has suddenly become the enemy of the people and the enemy of democracy; if Morales wants to remain in power he must stick to the beliefs which helped him come to power rather than oppress the very people who got him there!